Global economic growth: robust but uneven
For 2026, global growth is expected to be around 2.8%, with the United States playing a leading role, driven by loose financial conditions, tax cuts, and tariff relief.
Europe will grow more modestly, held back by political uncertainties.
Asia (China, India) will show solid growth, supported by exports, infrastructure, and technology.
Monetary policies: stability at a high level
Most central banks are expected to move from an easing cycle in 2025 to a status quo phase in 2026.
Investors nonetheless anticipate a 50-basis point cut in Fed rates, supporting risk appetite.
A low volatile environment, with central banks in observation mood, is expected.
Persistent but controlled inflation; watch out for the effects of geopolitical tensions.
The probability of a global recession remains moderate. To derail this hypothesis, investors will pay particular attention to the evolution of supply chains and persistent trade tensions.
Equity markets: cautious optimism
Global stock gains are expected to continue, supported by earnings growth.
The significant increase in investment spending related to AI is emerging as a driver of growth and productivity. However, return on investments seems to be a challenge in companies’ valuation that are about to invest USD 650 billion to maintain their leadership role in the field. Investors will therefore look to diversify, hinting at a renewed interest in the whole market.
Globalization, which was desired for a time, is no longer in favor. The ongoing market fragmentation will result in less economic synchronization and new diversification prospects. New opportunities are emerging in Europe and Asia, but also in the small and mid-cap segment.